ADRIAN, Mich. — Sure, the facts don't look promising.
The New Orleans Saints will play in their first Super Bowl. History says that's not a good omen.
Teams making their inaugural appearance in the big game have gone 8-19, with the 2002 Tampa Bay Bucs being the last first-time winner.
Two first-timers, like the Saints, boasted the NFL’s top scoring offense: the 1969 Vikings and 2005 Seahawks. Both lost.
The Saints face the Indianapolis Colts, who won Super Bowl XLI, and their star quarterback Peyton Manning, the four-time MVP who could reinforce his case in the greatest-QB-ever conversation.
So what.
We’ve never seen a first-timer like the Saints, a team that has spent most of its 43-year history losing, carrying the moniker “the Aints” and prompting fans to don paper-bag masks to games. We have never seen a first-timer like this, one that has shouldered the emotional recovery of a devastated community. The script seems Hollywood-like in its sentimental value.
Because we haven't seen a story like this, it seems logical the Saints will buck the trends, hurdle the obstacles and win Super Bowl XLIV.
Saints 38, Colts 33.
But, of course, a heartwarming tale doesn't score points or win games. Let’s talk Xs and Os.
New Orleans QB Drew Brees (or Breesus, as he's called around the Big Easy) passed for over 4,000 yards for the fourth straight year without a true No. 1 receiver. He makes smart, lightning-quick decisions. The Colts need a heavy pass rush to disrupt the rhythm of the Saints aerial circus.
That’s what makes the Dwight Freeney injury a massive blow to Indianapolis.
Freeney, the All-Pro defensive end, continues to battle torn ankle ligaments and even if he does play, he won't be at 100 percent. Thus, the Saints have the freedom to double-team Indy's second-best pass-rusher, Robert Mathis, giving Breesus plenty of time.
This matchup — the first time both top seeds reached the Super Bowl since 1993 — could boil down to which defense stops the opposing offense first.
The game should amount to a tennis match, the offenses zooming back and forth, back and forth. The offense that fails to continue the rally could cost its team the game considering there’s a talented offense on the other sideline ready to pounce.
The Saints defense faces the incredible Manning, who will take a leave from his Oreo-licking contests to play a football game.
But Darren Sharper and Co. have seen top-tier quarterbacks this postseason (Kurt Warner and Brett Favre). They made big plays against both. The Colts have played Baltimore second-year signal-caller Joe Flacco and New York Jets rookie Mark Sanchez.
Advantage: Saints.
Or if you need another reason to join Who Dat Nation and cheer for the Saints, consider this: The City of New Orleans has already planned a parade for the Saints regardless of tonight’s outcome.
If any city in America deserves a victory parade, isn't it New Orleans?
Scott McNeish is the assistant sports editor at The Daily Telegram. He can be reached at (517) 265-5111 ext. 255 or
scott@lenconnect.com
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